Monday, June 27, 2011

India and China wrestle for influence in turbulent Nepal as civil war fears rise

As the Himalayan nation of Nepal struggles to find a political solution to years of civil war, the country has become a battleground for strategic influence between its two giant neighbours, India and China.

BY VANCOUVER SUN JUNE 22, 2011


As the Himalayan nation of Nepal struggles to find a political solution to years of civil war, the country has become a battleground for strategic influence between its two giant neighbours, India and China.

All the indications are that China is winning as it employs far more deft tactics of diplomacy, and economic and military aid than its rivals in New Delhi.

India, in contrast, has on several occasions been exposed as using the kind of heavy-handed and hectoring tactics it employs all too frequently when dealing with its junior partners in the South Asia region.

This is more than a popularity contest between Beijing and New Delhi among the power brokers of Kathmandu. Nepal and its 30 million people occupy some highly strategic geography between India and Chinese-occupied Tibet.

This is a region where New Delhi and Beijing have several unresolved territorial disputes and there are regular skirmishes. Both countries are upgrading their roads, railways and airstrips along their borders so as to be able to move their armies swiftly to the front if need be.

Nepal became particularly fertile ground for Indian and Chinese rivalry after November 2005, with an agreement to end the country's decade-long civil war in which Maoist insurgents battled the forces of a corrupt and dissolute monarchy.

Elections early in 2008 for a 601-member Constituent Assembly led to the end of the monarchy.

King Gyanendra was replaced by President Ram Baran Yadav as head of state.

But there has been almost no progress in drawing up a new constitution since then. That work was meant to be completed within two years. But there was a political vacuum for the first eight months as assembly members made 16 failed attempts to select a prime minister.

They were then given a yearlong extension to the end of May this year, but they only met eight times for a total of 95 minutes.

President Yadav has now given the assembly a further three months to come up with an outline constitution. But few expect to see any significant developments by the end of August.

The euphoria evident among ordinary Nepalese when the civil war ended has collapsed into disillusionment and even hostility toward the assembly. Many fear a return to conflict.

That's not an irrational anxiety. One of the problems is nearly 20,000 Maoist fighters who are in camps across the country, but who should have been integrated into the national security forces.

All sorts of unresolved details have hindered this integration. The other main party in the assembly along with the Communists, the Nepal Congress Party, is understandably not keen on holding new elections while its main political rivals still have a large standing army.

And the Communists are not a unified force. There is a good deal of squabbling and jockeying for position among the various Maoist factions.

These days, of course, Beijing is not a great supporter of Maoism and, ironically, had good relations with King Gyanendra while New Delhi supported the reformist Congress Party.

But since the 2005 ceasefire, Beijing has sent a steady stream of military aid to Nepal including, most recently, a $20-million package announced by the chief of the general staff of China's People's Liberation Army, Gen. Chen Bingde, during a March visit.

In 2008 Beijing and Kathmandu announced the building of a 770-kilometre-long railway from the Tibetan capital Lhasa to the Nepalese border town of Khasa.

This is due to be completed in 2013 and China is also looking at building six new cross-border highways.

While China has been extending its military and economic bonds with Nepal, India has been fumbling.

New Delhi backed the military in a spat with the Maoist-led government in 2009. It then ignored the universally good advice to never quarrel with people who buy ink by the ton.

New Delhi got into an argument with Nepal's largest newspaper publishing company over "unfriendly editorials," and blocked the transit of newsprint to the media group.

Some members of the assembly have claimed Indian officials have threatened them with various forms of retribution if they don't vote the way New Delhi wants.

China has been careful not to directly provoke India, but is very happy at New Delhi's discomfiture.

jmanthorpe@vancouversun.com

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Maoist Party Backs Marxist Party PM Candidate

3 February 2011
Profile: New Nepal Prime Minister Jhalanath Khanal
By Joanna Jolly
BBC News, Kathmandu

NEPAL AT A CROSSROADS

After more than seven months as a rudderless country without a prime minister, politicians in landlocked Nepal have elected a new leader.

Jhalanath Khanal, the chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal - Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), won a clear majority of votes in parliament after he gained the backing of the Maoist party.

In doing so, 60-year-old Mr Khanal - the youngest of seven siblings - has become the 34th Prime Minister of Nepal.

Born in the south-eastern district of Ilam in 1950, he has been involved in politics for over three decades.

In 1990 and 2006, he played a role in the pro-democracy protests against the monarchy which finally led to its abolition in 2008.

Mr Khanal became an MP for the Ilam constituency after elections for Nepal's constituent assembly in 2008.

A year later, the former information and communications minister was elected chairman of the CPN-UML party.

This is not the first time he has stood as candidate for prime minister.

Mr Khanal was also nominated during the country's previous attempts to elect a new leader, which ended on Thursday after 16 failed votes.

Addressing parliament before the election, he said it was crucial for political leaders to consolidate the progress made since Nepal's 10-year civil conflict between Maoist guerrillas and the army ended in 2006.

"We must move ahead very quickly or once again be plunged into crisis," he told reporters.

"Parliament's main task is to draft the new national constitution and I can assure you that we will achieve that under my party's leadership of the next government."

Political disagreements
The deadline for writing the constitution is 28 May. Mr Khanal will also have to deal with the issue of the future of more than 19,000 Maoist fighters.


Mr Khanal must hold different factions together if he is to succeed
Under the peace deal signed in 2006, they should either be integrated into the national security forces or return to civilian life.

Political disagreements over how to handle this issue has held up the peace process.

Last month, the United Nations mission charged with overseeing the process withdrew from Nepal after the country's political parties did not extend its mandate.

The disagreements over how to handle this issue has held up the peace process. Last month, the United Nations Mission in Nepal (Unmin) - charged with overseeing the process - withdrew from Nepal after the country's political parties did not extend its mandate.

Analysts say another major challenge for Mr Khanal will be to keep his CPN-UML party behind him.

Many of the party's members distrust the Maoists and have been arguing against joining hands with them.

Similarly, it is still not clear if the influential Nepali Congress party - which helped elect Mr Khanal's predecessor Madhav Kumar Nepal to the post of prime minister - will join a coalition led by him.

Talking to the BBC on Thursday, Nepali Congress President Sushil Koirala blamed the CPN-UML of betrayal, insisting that his party will remain in opposition.

Mr Khanal becomes pilot of the ship as it enters choppy waters.